菲律賓網友問：東盟峰會上爲什麼沒一個國家願爲菲律賓譴責中國？

菲律賓網友提問說：長期以來，中國一直被媒體描繪成“南海霸主”，爲什麼在剛剛結束的東盟峰會上，東盟九國沒有一個支持菲律賓的主張？爲什麼他們不願意譴責中國？這種沒有道理的指責引起各國網友的駁斥。

安亞·肖文

**Typical media cognitive bias**

**典型的媒體認知偏見**

Many people are surrounded by media representing Western interests. Many countries' media lack independent investigative capabilities and often simply copy the content of Western media, resulting in cognitive bias.

許多人都被代表西方利益的媒體所包圍。諸多國家的媒體缺乏獨立的調查能力，往往只是照搬西方媒體的內容，由此便產生了認知偏見。

Here are many people's perceptions of ASEAN and the South China Sea:

以下便是許多人對東盟和南海的認知情況：

Western media claims that China is attempting to occupy the entire South China Sea with a "bloodthirsty mouth", using warships and coast guard ships to bully other ASEAN countries, oppressing them through violent means, and forcing them to abandon their waters and islands. Under such a narrative, China has become a "bully" in the South China Sea, and all countries are trying to resist China's so-called "atrocities". This is the statement created by Western media and also the perception received by most people.

西方媒體宣稱，中國正企圖張着“血盆大口”霸佔整個南海，動用軍艦和海警船欺凌其他東盟國家，以暴力手段壓迫它們，迫使它們放棄海域及島嶼。在這樣的敘事下，中國儼然成了南海的“惡霸”，而所有國家都在試圖反抗中國的所謂“暴行”。這就是西方媒體營造出的說法，也是大多數人所接受到的認知。

However, at the just concluded ASEAN summit, not a single ASEAN country was willing to condemn China's stance on the South China Sea dispute. The only countries that want to include condemnation in the joint statement are the Philippines and the countries outside the region that support it (the United States, Japan, India, and Australia).

然而，在剛剛結束的東盟峰會上，東盟十國裡沒有一個國家願意就南海爭端譴責中國的立場。唯一想把譴責內容寫進聯合聲明的只有菲律賓以及支持它的域外國家（美國、日本、印度和澳大利亞）。

Isn't this creating a huge contrast? The media's rhetoric cannot explain this contradictory phenomenon at all.

這難道不是形成了巨大反差嗎？媒體的那套說辭根本解釋不了這種矛盾現象。

**The real situation in the South China Sea is as follows:

**真實的南海狀況是這樣的**：

Almost all coastal countries have claimed to have their own spheres of influence in this region, with these spheres of influence intersecting and each country insisting on having legitimate reasons.

幾乎所有沿海國家都已宣稱在這片區域擁有自己的勢力範圍，這些勢力範圍線相互交錯，並且每個國家都堅稱自己有着正當的理由。

For example, there are related situations between China and Vietnam, Vietnam and Malaysia, Malaysia and the Philippines, China and the Philippines, Vietnam and Indonesia, Brunei and Vietnam, and Indonesia and Malaysia.

比如中國與越南之間、越南與馬來西亞之間、馬來西亞與菲律賓之間、中國與菲律賓之間、越南與印度尼西亞之間、文萊與越南之間、印度尼西亞與馬來西亞之間，都存在着相關情況。

There is no region in the world with more complex territorial and maritime disputes than here.

世界上再沒有哪個地區的領土及海洋爭端比這裡更爲複雜了。更有意思的是，臺灣地區也代表中國捲入了這些爭端當中，並且其立場與中國大陸是一致的。

**The actual control of South China Sea Islands is as follows * *:

**南海諸島的實際控制情況如下**：

China is not the party that occupies the most islands. In fact, Vietnam occupies the largest number of islands, and the Philippines is also particularly prominent in this regard.

中國並非是佔據島嶼最多的一方。實際上，越南佔據的島嶼數量最多，菲律賓在這方面的情況也較爲突出。

Moreover, China is not the only country engaged in the construction of artificial islands. Vietnam has implemented such projects earlier and has built more of them than China.

而且，中國也不是唯一進行人工島建設的國家，越南實施此類項目的時間更早，建設的數量也多於中國。

Despite numerous disputes and conflicts here, this sea area has remained calm in reality. Occasionally, some fishing boats may cross the border, leading to safety conflicts. Since the 21st century, there has never been a war or armed conflict here, and compared to other regions, it can actually be considered very peaceful.

儘管這裡存在諸多爭端和衝突，但這片海域在現實中一直保持着平靜。只是偶爾會有一些漁船越界，進而引發安全方面的衝突。自21世紀以來，這裡從未發生過戰爭或者武裝衝突，相較於其他地區，這裡其實算得上十分和平了。

Here, it is not the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea that is in play, in fact, this law has had little effect in this region. Because most disputes existed before the law was enacted.

在這裡，並非是《聯合國海洋法公約》在發揮作用，實際上這部法律在這片區域幾乎沒起到什麼作用。因爲大多數爭端早在該法律頒佈之前就已經存在了。

The peace in the South China Sea is maintained by the "Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea" led by China and jointly signed by ASEAN countries.

南海的和平是由中國牽頭、東盟國家共同參與簽署的《南海各方行爲宣言》所維繫的。

The declaration actually elaborates on several key points:

該宣言實際上詳細闡述了幾個關鍵要點：

1. Each country can continue to maintain its own sovereignty claims, but cannot blame other countries.

1. 各國可以繼續維持自身的主權主張，但不得指責其他國家。

2. Do not engage in oil and mineral extraction activities in the disputed area, and do not conduct related commercial activities unless the disputing parties reach a consensus.

2. 在爭議區域不要進行石油和礦產的開採活動，除非爭議各方達成一致意見，否則不得開展相關商業行爲。

3. Allow fishermen to engage in fishing operations in disputed areas, where both parties can fish, while avoiding conflicts and refraining from using military force or violent means to manage illegal fishermen.

3. 允許漁民在爭議區域進行捕魚作業，雙方漁民均可在此捕魚，同時要避免發生衝突，並且不得動用軍事力量和採取暴力手段來管理非法漁民。

4. To ensure freedom of navigation and overflight, the passage of all merchant ships and civilian aircraft here is not affected.

4. 要確保航行和飛越自由，所有的商船以及民用飛機在這裡的通行不受影響。

5. To protect the marine environment, various protective measures such as fishing bans and coral protection should be jointly implemented.

5. 要保護海洋環境，共同實施諸如禁漁、珊瑚保護等各類保護措施。

6. Unilateral actions are prohibited, new unilateral military deployments are not allowed, and attempts to change the actual control of islands and reefs are not allowed.

6. 禁止單邊行動，不得再進行單邊的新軍事部署，也不能試圖改變島嶼、礁盤的實際控制狀況。

This declaration was signed in November 2002, and its actual implementation plan was completed in 2011, bringing long-term peace and stability to the South China Sea region.

這份宣言於2002年11月簽署，其實際執行計劃於2011年制定完成，它爲南海地區帶來了長期的和平與穩定。

This is actually an extremely clever agreement, which does not attempt to "completely resolve" territorial disputes between countries, but rather maintains peace and the status quo on the basis of recognizing the existence of disputes, and then carries out economic cooperation. This is much more sophisticated than some Western thinking.

這實際上是一份極爲巧妙的協議，它並沒有試圖去“徹底解決”各國之間的領土爭端，而是在承認爭端存在的基礎上，維持和平、保持現狀，進而開展經濟合作。這可比某些西方的思維要高明得多。

**Regarding the situation in the Philippines:

**關於菲律賓的情況**：

During his tenure from 2010 to 2016, Aquino III did not recognize the disputed Huangyan Island (Scarborough Shoal) and insisted that the area belonged to the Philippines, which sparked conflicts between China and the Philippines. He also initiated the famous South China Sea arbitration case through a court that was not recognized by the United Nations.

阿基諾三世在2010年至2016年執政期間，不承認存在爭議的黃巖島（斯卡伯勒淺灘），堅稱該區域屬於菲律賓，由此引發了中菲之間的衝突。他還通過一個未得到聯合國認可的法庭，發起了著名的南海仲裁案。

In response, China has taken corresponding measures, increasing the patrol intensity of maritime police and expelling Filipino fishermen.

對此，中國採取了相應措施，增加了海警巡邏力度，並驅逐菲律賓漁民。

During his tenure from 2010 to 2016, Aquino III did not recognize the disputed Huangyan Island (Scarborough Shoal) and insisted that the area belonged to the Philippines, which sparked conflicts between China and the Philippines. He also initiated the famous South China Sea arbitration case through a court that was not recognized by the United Nations.

杜特爾特在2016年至2022年執政期間，重新回到了《南海各方行爲宣言》的框架之下，與中國進行談判，承認該區域存在爭端。此後，中國不再派遣海警進行巡邏，雙方漁民恢復了捕魚作業。菲律賓那艘擱淺的軍艦繼續維持在原地的正常狀態，但承諾不會對其進行加固，雙方還承諾會共同努力，尋求解決該軍艦相關問題的最終方案。就這樣，雙方恢復了和平狀態。

In response, China has taken corresponding measures, increasing the patrol intensity of maritime police and expelling Filipino fishermen.

小馬科斯自2023年上臺執政以來，又回到了阿基諾三世的立場上，運送建築材料去加固那艘擱淺的軍艦，並且在政治層面上不再承認雙方之間存在爭端，還尋求美國的介入。

In response, China has taken corresponding measures, increasing the patrol intensity of maritime police and expelling Filipino fishermen.

於是，中國再次採取應對措施，派遣海警船驅逐漁民，並阻止菲律賓向擱淺軍艦運送物資。

Except for the situation between China and the Philippines, all other disputes remain calm. For example, the recent conflict between Chinese coast guards and Vietnamese fishermen was quickly resolved through the visit of the Chinese Premier and negotiations between the two countries.

除了中國和菲律賓之間的情況外，其他所有爭端都保持着平靜狀態。例如，近期中國海警與越南漁民之間產生的衝突，就通過中國總理的訪問以及兩國之間的協商得以迅速解決。

So, the other nine ASEAN countries are satisfied with the current situation in the South China Sea. After all, none of them can defeat other neighboring countries, let alone China.

所以，東盟其他九個國家對南海目前的局勢是滿意的。畢竟，它們中沒有一個國家能夠戰勝其他鄰國，更不用說戰勝中國了。

Since China is willing to maintain peace and acknowledges the existence of disputes between all parties, and given that there is currently no better solution, all external interference has become a negative factor.

既然中國願意維持和平，並且承認各方之間存在的爭端，又鑑於目前也沒有更好的解決辦法，那麼所有外部勢力的干涉就都成了負面因素。

If the dispute between China and the Philippines is limited to the conflict between the two countries' maritime police, other ASEAN countries will adopt a mentality of 'it's none of their business'.

倘若中菲之間的爭端僅僅侷限於兩國海警之間的衝突，東盟其他國家就會抱着“事不關己”的心態。

But when the Philippines attempted to introduce external forces such as the United States, Japan, and Australia into the region and deploy foreign military forces, the other nine ASEAN countries immediately became nervous.

但當菲律賓試圖將美國、日本、澳大利亞等外部勢力引入該地區，並在該地區部署外國軍事力量時，東盟其他九個國家馬上就緊張起來了。

They unanimously believe that external interference will threaten the long-term peace and stability of the region, and will also affect the interests of all countries. Especially with the introduction of military force (such as the United States' medium range missiles), it is very likely to bring the war here (like in Ukraine).

它們一致認爲，外部勢力的干涉會威脅到該地區的長期和平與穩定，還會影響各國的利益。特別是引入軍事力量（比如美國的中程導彈），很有可能會將戰火引到這裡（就像烏克蘭那樣）。

**From the perspective of ASEAN countries:

**從東盟國家的角度來看**：

China means maintaining the status quo;

中國意味着維持現狀；

The Philippines and the United States represent a change in the status quo.

而菲律賓與美國則代表着改變現狀。

Therefore, all nine ASEAN countries have sided with China, which contradicts the propaganda of Western media and people's conventional understanding, but this is the reality.

正因如此，東盟九個國家都站在了中國這一邊，這與西方媒體的宣傳以及人們的常規認知有些相悖，但這就是現實情況。

詹姆斯·馬提尼

Many people (even if not the vast majority) are unaware that the "nine dash line" was established by the authorities of the Republic of China in the 1940s, when it was the eleven dash line. The meaning of this line is not that China claims ownership of the entire water area within the line, but rather that the islands within the line are Chinese territory.

很多人（即便不是絕大多數人）都不知道，“九段線”是四十年代由中華民國當局劃定的，當時是十一段線。這條線的含義並非是中國宣稱線內整個水域歸自己所有，而是表明線內的島嶼爲中國領土。

For a long time after World War II, the countries surrounding the South China Sea had no objections to this line until the United States intervened.

二戰後的很長一段時間裡，南海周邊國家對這條線並無異議，直到美國進行干涉。

Currently, various countries in the South China Sea region claim sovereignty over certain islands.

目前，南海地區的各個國家都宣稱對某些島嶼擁有主權。

Since 1987, Japan has been engaged in the construction of Okinawan Reef.

自1987年起，日本開始對衝之鳥礁進行建設。

China expressed dissatisfaction with this and pointed out that Japan cannot build a reef into an island. However, the West supports Japan's move and ignores China's dissatisfaction.

中國對此表示不滿，指出日本不能將一處礁石建造成島嶼。西方卻支持日本的這一舉動，對中國的不滿置若罔聞。

With the support of the Western hedge against the Bird Reef, China thought to itself, 'If you make it, I'll make it too,' and began building its own islands in the South China Sea.

在西方對衝之鳥礁予以支持的情況下，中國心想你造我也造，開始在南海建造自己的島嶼。

Currently, China has at least three large islands in the South China Sea region.

如今，中國在南海地區至少擁有3座大型島嶼。

Now, even with the backing of the United States, countries in the region need to think twice before taking actual action.

現在，即便有美國在背後撐腰，該地區的國家在採取實際行動前也得三思而後行。

For decades, China has been advocating for the shelving of disputes and the joint development of resources in the South China Sea.

幾十年來，中國一直在倡導擱置爭議、共同開發南海資源的倡議。

Such initiatives will only be heard when China is strong enough.

只有當中國足夠強大時，這樣的倡議纔會被聽取。

When China has sufficient deterrence in the region, it still proposes to resolve disputes through peaceful means.

當中國在該地區具備足夠的威懾力時，依然提議通過和平手段解決爭端。

This is actually quite attractive to some countries, but they need more evidence to convince themselves that China will not suddenly change its approach one day and seek to solve the problem through military force.

這實際上對一些國家頗具吸引力，但它們需要更多證據來說服自己，確保中國不會有朝一日突然改變做法，轉而尋求通過軍事力量來解決問題。

The warship "Mount Madre" is an excellent example. It claims to have been stranded in 1999 and has been stuck there ever since.

“馬德雷山”號軍艦就是一個絕佳的例子。它聲稱於1999年擱淺，此後便一直停留在那裡。

In the past 20 years, the Philippines has transported a large amount of building materials in an attempt to turn it into a fortress because it is no longer mobile.

在過去的20年裡，菲律賓運送了大量建築材料，試圖將它打造成一座堡壘，因爲它已經無法移動了。

China did not attempt to remove them. Moreover, there are rumors that some Filipino soldiers fled due to the harsh living conditions on board. China captured these deserters, sent them back, and left them with some food.

中國並沒有試圖將其移走，非但如此，有傳言稱，一些菲律賓士兵因艦上生活太過艱苦而逃離，中國抓獲了這些逃兵，將他們送回，還留給他們一些食物。

China can destroy the Philippine Navy with just one destroyer, but allowed the USS Madre to stay there for more than 20 years, which already shows that China has no intention of resolving the South China Sea dispute through military means.

中國僅憑一艘驅逐艦就能摧毀菲律賓海軍，但卻允許“馬德雷山”號在那裡停留了20多年，這已經很能說明中國無意通過軍事手段來解決南海爭端。

At the same time, China is investing in Indonesia and Vietnam to effectively assist them in upgrading their industries.

與此同時，中國正在對印度尼西亞和越南進行投資，切實助力它們升級產業。

Indonesia stopped exporting laterite nickel ore several years ago. Its rough processed product nickel iron may soon face an export ban as Indonesia aims to develop its stainless steel industry and plans to build over 60 wet metallurgical nickel production lines. Every step forward means bringing more job opportunities and tax revenue to the Indonesian government.

印度尼西亞幾年前就已停止出口紅土鎳礦。其粗加工產品鎳鐵可能很快也會面臨出口禁令，因爲印尼想要發展不鏽鋼產業，並且還計劃建設60多條溼法冶金鎳生產線。每前進一步，都意味着會爲印尼政府帶來更多的就業崗位和稅收收入。

And the Philippines is still exporting laterite nickel ore, which is very unprofitable for the locals.

而菲律賓仍在出口紅土鎳礦，這對當地人來說利潤非常微薄。

ASEAN countries have realized the benefits of cooperating with China.

東盟國家已經意識到了與中國合作所帶來的好處。

Compared to the various conflicts and lack of development faced when following the United States, they know what is the most advantageous choice for themselves.

相較於追隨美國時面臨的種種衝突以及發展的匱乏，它們清楚什麼纔是對自己最有利的選擇。

詹米·王

From the beginning, it is important to clarify:

從一開始就要搞清楚：

It is precisely the small groups in the British and American "media" that specialize in smearing and criticizing China, portraying China as a bully in the South China Sea as their evil "missionary mission".

正是英美“媒體”中那些專門抹黑、抨擊中國的小團體，把“將中國描繪成南海的惡霸”當作他們那邪惡的“傳教使命”。

Why do we have to do this? As you have emphasized, it is to portray the 'Philippines' as a pitiful creature oppressed under the iron hooves of that cruel bully.

究竟爲何要這樣做呢？正如你已經着重指出的那樣，是爲了把“菲律賓”刻畫成在那個殘暴惡霸的鐵蹄下受盡壓迫的可憐蟲。

However, that 'Philippines' once again proved its extreme foolishness beyond redemption!

然而，那個“菲律賓”卻再一次無可救藥地證明了自己的愚蠢至極！

Why is this happening? The reason is that it did the following things:

爲何會這樣呢？原因就在於它做了如下這些事：

It naively believed that those anti China guys had successfully brought most countries in the world into their despicable camp;

它天真地以爲那些反華的傢伙們已經成功地把世界上大部分國家都拉攏到了他們那卑鄙的陣營；

It thought that the ASEAN organization was also on its ugly side;

它以爲東盟組織也站在了它那醜惡的一邊；

It feels that ASEAN has not seen through it, it is just a humble little henchman, a hyena wearing a paper hat under its master on the other side of the ocean;

它覺得東盟沒能看穿它不過就是個卑微的小嘍囉，是大洋彼岸主子手下戴着紙糊帽子的鬣狗罷了；

It mistakenly believed that the other nine members of ASEAN would sympathize with its heinous actions towards China;

它錯誤地認爲東盟的其他九個成員國會同情它對中國瘋狂實施的那些惡劣行徑；

So, like a madman, it even chose the wrong place - Laos, and the wrong occasion - the ASEAN summit, and did the worst thing, which is to say, viciously accused China and even demanded other ASEAN countries to do this disgusting thing with it.

於是，它就像個瘋子一樣，甚至選錯了地方——老撾，也選錯了場合——東盟峰會，幹出了最糟糕的事，也就是說，惡狠狠地指責中國，甚至還要求其他東盟國家跟它一起幹這種令人作嘔的勾當。

Only the dumbest fool could do such a thing!

只有最蠢的蠢貨纔可能做出那樣的事！

This is truly disgusting to other ASEAN countries:

這可着實讓東盟其他國家噁心透頂了：

a. ASEAN has never, and will never, favor either side in such foolish tricks as the Philippines is fond of playing;

a. 東盟過去從未、將來也永遠不會在像菲律賓熱衷玩的這種愚蠢把戲中偏袒任何一方；

b. For decades, ASEAN has only existed as a platform for dialogue and cooperation, providing a regional venue for extensive diplomatic interactions on regional issues at both bilateral and multilateral levels.

b. 幾十年來，東盟一直都只是作爲一個對話與合作的平臺而存在，爲在雙邊和多邊層面就地區問題開展廣泛的外交互動提供了一個區域性場所。

c. ASEAN does not support the Philippines being manipulated by its mastermind behind the scenes while illegally provoking China and attempting to invade China's territory in the South China Sea.

c. 東盟不支持菲律賓一邊受其幕後主使的操控，一邊非法挑釁中國並試圖侵犯中國在南海的領土。

d. ASEAN opposes any external forces interfering in the internal affairs of the region.

d. 東盟反對任何外部勢力干涉本地區內部事務。

e. Moreover, ASEAN and China are each other's largest trading partners, with a trade volume of nearly $1 trillion in 2023.

e. 而且，東盟和中國互爲彼此的第一大貿易伙伴，2023年的貿易額接近1萬億美元。

The result is obvious that at this summit, ASEAN regarded the Philippines as a complete black sheep.

結果顯而易見，在這次峰會上，東盟把菲律賓看成了徹頭徹尾的害羣之馬。

This also forced the Philippines to grit their teeth and swallow this great shame.

這也讓菲律賓不得不硬着頭皮嚥下這奇恥大辱。

However, it should be considered lucky as it has not yet been directly kicked out of the ASEAN team.

不過，它應該還算幸運，畢竟它還沒被直接踢出東盟的隊伍。

Hmph, if it doesn't change its attitude, it will end up like this one day.

哼，如果他不改變態度，總有一天會落得如此下場的。